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Thread: France stands up to Russia over the Ukraine.

  1. #1
    Senior Member lysander's Avatar
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    Default France stands up to Russia over the Ukraine.

    Looks like France is going to get two new gator-navy ships...

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/wo...stok.html?_r=0

  2. #2
    Senior Member DaveH's Avatar
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    Putin will probably cut off the gas.

  3. #3

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    I don't know how well, though Europe IS dependent upon Russia for it, he really can't afford to. He really has only one product he can deny the market, extractives. He will try to bully them as well as his neighbors. Ho ho ho!

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    More like backing down to pressure from USA and Germany

  5. #5
    Senior Member DaveH's Avatar
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    Default Superfly is a complete bozo and has no strategic thoughts

    He surrounds himself with Harvard liberal asshats who hate the military and don't have a clue.

    The lesson to be learned is don't intentionally drive a major military power to the brink of collapse. Fucking with Russia when they are desperate is a huge mistake. People fear ISIS? ISIS is like the girl Scouts compared to Russia. They would start a war at the drop of a hat. These people were invaded and ransacked by the Germans and still have a giant hard-on over it. The Russians might take Estonia and Latvia as a warm up just to see who laughs then. The Fulda gap is wide open today. How would this work: shut off the gas to Europe in the dead of winter and then invade the Baltic countries. Europe would cry uncle in about a week. Superfly would be riding his girl's bike around in circles asking his oh so smart cohorts what to do next.

    The Saudis attempts to flood the oil market and price out shale oil could get very interesting with Mother Russia essentially next door. They would go down too and they won't let that happen and neither should we.

  6. #6

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    What Dave is saying is a bit of an over reach but from a pragmatic standpoint " right on " . Esp the part abt messing with Russia.

  7. #7

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    Addendum: Do you really believe Putin will play Khrushchev to Obama's Kennedy!

  8. #8

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    You guys have opened a real can of worms in dropping your oil/gas export law, US will flood the market with cheap oil/gas which will get a few Russian fingers twitching and as stated " we don't want to be doing that" twitchy 2 months ahead with Greece also about to drop the euro ball....

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    Senior Member papazulu's Avatar
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    ...and Petrol taking the plunge to an all time low, well at least as far down as what it was many years ago
    Don't talk to me about naval tradition. It's nothing but rum, sodomy and the lash.
    Sir Winston Churchill

  10. #10
    Senior Member DaveH's Avatar
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    Papazulu: reading one of my old books and there is a lot of very good information about your black powder pistol. It is a large book and reasonably old, but there is a lot of information about your Adams. "The Handgun" Geoffrey Boothroyd. If you don't already have it, it would be a good addition to your library.
    Best wishes
    Dave

  11. #11
    Senior Member papazulu's Avatar
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    Thanks for the tip Dave, just ordered a copy

    http://www.abebooks.com/978030493435...0304934356/plp
    Don't talk to me about naval tradition. It's nothing but rum, sodomy and the lash.
    Sir Winston Churchill

  12. #12

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    Am I misinformed. Subsequent, to the oil and steel embargo placed on Japan wasn't the plans for Pearl Harbor formulated. Cheers, Bob.

  13. #13
    Senior Member lysander's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by robert gordon View Post
    Am I misinformed. Subsequent, to the oil and steel embargo placed on Japan wasn't the plans for Pearl Harbor formulated. Cheers, Bob.
    Yes and No.

    US and Japanese relations had been spiraling down hill since the 1920 and Japan's increasing incursions into China and later outright invasion of Manchuria. Various incidents like the USS Panay Incident and the Allison Incident further deteriorated US-Japanese relations. When Japan 'invaded' French Indochina in 1940, the US stopped export of most materials that could be considered war related, except crude oil. The stopping of crude oil exports to Japan at that time was considered by the US as too provocative and would have resulted in the loss of the last (and biggest) bargaining chip the US had over Japanese foreign policy. Later in July 1941 all Japanese assets in the United States were frozen, which pretty much ended US-Japanese commercial activities, however, oil was still not embargoed (although there was now no way for the Japanese to pay for any oil, so it was a de facto embargo). Britain and the Dutch followed suit a few months later. Roosevelt knew this put Japan in a untenable position, as they were dependent of imported raw materials for their industry, however, it was hoped that through negotiation he could get the Japanese out of China and possibly tame Japanese militarism in exchange for the return of economic normalcy.

    Diplomacy began to seriously fail between the two nations when, in October, Prime Minister Konoye's government was replaced by General Tojo Hideki's much more militant government. On 20 November 1941 Japan proposed a withdrawal from Indochina provided The US, Britain and the Netherlands ceased aiding the Chinese against Japan and lifted all sanctions against Japan. This was refused outright by the US.

    Planning for the Pearl Harbor attack began back in March-April 1941 (a few months before the oil embargo, but after the steel and other material embargoes), as a more efficient way to deal with the US fleet. The original Japanese war plan (formulated back in the 1920s) was to occupy the Philippines, after which the expected US move would be to move the fleet through the Japanese Mandates of the South Pacific. Here the numerically inferior Japaneses forces could whittle away US strength to parity before a major fleet action somewhere in the Philippines Sea.

    The US and the Empire of Japan were going to be at war sometime in the 1940 to 1942 time frame, both countries knew this and were preparing for it. Japan was further encouraged toward war in the belief that Britain would be too occupied by Germany and the Dutch East Indies could be taken without fighting as French Indochina (the Vichy Government invited the Japanese into that area).

    Isoroku Yamamoto, the chief architect of the attack was a vocal opponent of war with the US, understanding the US had a much larger industrial capacity than Japan and a stronger will than most Japanese estimated...

    "Should hostilities once break out between Japan and the United States, it would not be enough that we take Guam and the Philippines, nor even Hawaii and San Francisco. To make victory certain, we would have to march into Washington and dictate the terms of peace in the White House. I wonder if our politicians (who speak so lightly of a Japanese-American war) have confidence as to the final outcome and are prepared to make the necessary sacrifices."

  14. #14

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    point counter point: western sanctions against the empire of Japan had consequences( whether intended or unintended)The consequences of western sanctions directed at Russia remain to be seen. Will Putin accept a western imposed destruction of the Russian economy? speculative, Bob.

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    Senior Member DaveH's Avatar
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    The United States is not leading the charge to crush Russia's economy. Saudi Arabia is the one who continues to pump at give away prices. The US isn't really much of an oil exporter, they will be soon enough, but their main customer will be China. China also has large oil deposits that are not developed.

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    Senior Member lysander's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by robert gordon View Post
    point counter point: western sanctions against the empire of Japan had consequences( whether intended or unintended)The consequences of western sanctions directed at Russia remain to be seen. Will Putin accept a western imposed destruction of the Russian economy? speculative, Bob.
    Not really the same thing.

    The US and the Empire of Japan were already in an undeclared war by 1940, and the economic sanctions were just some of the opening shots before the declarations and the actual shooting. The thing with Russia, if you must draw parallels with WW2 is more like the Sudeten Crisis . . .

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    Hi Dave, Wasn't it the USA that called for economic sanctions on Russia. Hi Lysander, If you pull the donkey's, tail would it come as an enormous surprise if you got kicked. Regards, Bob.(I was considering a name change Philoctetes but I'll stick with Bob).

  18. #18
    Senior Member lysander's Avatar
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    For this to become a real war, both side have to be willing to shoot. Putin might be willing, but unless he blows up our Pacific fleet, we aren't.

    The thing is, Putin is an old KGB hand. The KGB was real good at organizing things to just suddenly happen, with result favorable to the Soviet Union, no Army involvement needed. I have a feeling we will wake up one morning and never hear of the Ukraine again...

  19. #19

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    #1 I agree in part. The unimaginable once annunciated (defined ) is no longer unimaginable. WW1 was thought to be unimaginable because the world was so interconnected. WW1 was also said- at the time to be the war to end all wars. #2 I just plain agree. Consensus of sorts, Bob.

  20. #20
    Senior Member DaveH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by robert gordon View Post
    Hi Dave, Wasn't it the USA that called for economic sanctions on Russia. Hi Lysander, If you pull the donkey's, tail would it come as an enormous surprise if you got kicked. Regards, Bob.(I was considering a name change Philoctetes but I'll stick with Bob).
    Calling for sanctions on some offending country is about as profound as blowing one's nose. It is done far to often and unless really thought out, never implemented, especially against another superpower which Russia certainly is. In Superfly, we have a manipulated fool for a president. He is a closet Muslim and is a wrecking ball to America. Putin knows this and simply laughs at our stupidity for reelecting this jughead for a second term.

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